Monthly Opening Range Casts Bearish Outlook


Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD attempts to retrace the decline from the previous week, but the monthly opening range brings the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate pullbacks ahead of the October-high (0.6930).

AUD/USD Analysis: Monthly Opening Range Casts Bearish Outlook

AUD/USD struggles to preserve the advance from the yearly low (0.6671) as President Donald Trump shows little intentions of rolling back tariffs.

Headlines surrounding the negotiations may continue to drag on the Aussie Dollar exchange rate amid doubts surrounding “phase one” of the US-China trade deal.

President Trump insists that the US and China “haven’t agreed to anything” as Chile no longer plans to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, with the Commander in Chief going onto say that “China would like to get somewhat of a rollback, not a complete rollback because they know I won’t do it.

It remains to be seen if a trade agreement will be reached as China, Australia’s largest trading partner, pledges to retaliate to the US blacklist, and the weakening outlook for global growth may force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further insulate the economy as the board remains “prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

In turn, the fresh updates to Australia’s Employment report may do little to influence the monetary policy outlook even though the region is anticipated to add 16.0K jobs in October as “recent outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.

It seems as though the RBA is more focused on its mandate for price stability as “the central scenario remains for inflation to pick up, but to do so only gradually,” and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may keep the door open to further embark on its rate easing cycle as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts its growth forecast for the Asia/Pacific region.

In contrast, recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest the central bank will revert to a wait-and-see approach after reducing the benchmark interest rate for the last three meetings as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. “believe monetary policy is in a good place.” As a result, fresh comments from Chairman Powell may shake up the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as the central bank head is scheduled to speak in front of US lawmakers over the coming days.

With that said, AUD/USD may face a more bearish fate ahead of the next RBA meeting on December 3, and the monthly opening range suggests the correction from the yearly low (0.6671) has run its course as the exchange rate continues to pullback from the October-high (0.6930).

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AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.6944), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in July.
  • A similar scenario appears to be taking shape as the correction from the yearly low (0.6671) fails to spur a test of the simple moving average, which lines up with the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6970 (23.6% expansion).
  • In turn, AUD/USD may continue to pullback from the October-high (0.6930) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps the bullish formation from the previous month.
  • Waiting for a break/close below 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to bring the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6740 (38.2% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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