GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold price chart warning that a downturn may be on the horizon
- Crude oil prices still digesting wild swings after Saudi supply jolt
- Path of least resistance likely favors risk-off tilt amid uncertainty
The benchmark commodities idled Thursday. Gold prices chewed over the prior day’s FOMC monetary policy announcement while crude oil prices continued to digest explosive volatility triggered by Saudi Arabia supply disruption fears at the start of the week.
A plethora of uncertainties – from the tenor of upcoming US-China trade negotiations to the path forward for Brexit – appear to be dulling conviction across financial markets. Absent an unexpected burst of headline-driven volatility, investors probably won’t get any more cavalier in the final hours of the trading week.
Active traders might be understandably leery of holding meaningful exposure over the weekend in the current jittery environment. Indeed, this week’s opening gap on crude oil demonstrated in spades the wisdom of caution. This could amount to another day of sideways price action.
Having said that, the overhang of uncertainty itself probably increases the overall risk profile of the universe of financial market assets. A defensive tilt may thus be the path of least resistance. Gold might edge up if yields fall against this backdrop while cycle-geared crude oil prices are pressured lower.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices continue to trace the outlines of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern. Confirmation of the bearish setup on a daily close below 1480.00 initially targets support in the 1437.70-52.95 but broadly implies a measured downside objective near the $1400/oz figure. Alternatively, rebounding resistance at 1523.05 exposes the weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00 anew.
Gold price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices are eyeing trend support set from early August after slipping back below resistance-turned-support marked by the September 10 swing top at 58.76. A daily close below this barrier – now at 54.51 – sets the stage to challenge the $50/bbl figure. Neutralizing near-term bearish cues probably requires establishing a foothold back above the 60.04-84 area.
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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